Iowa hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Will Josh Turek beat Ashley Hinson on Nov 3?
60% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 10 predictions cast.
Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democrat, beat Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race for the state's open U.S. Senate seat, with the Associated Press and CBS News projecting his win on the night of Nov. 3, 2026. Counts had Turek at roughly 50.5% to Hinson's 46.4%, with Libertarian Thomas Laehn taking about 3%, according to NBC News tallies as returns were finalized.
Turek, a former Paralympic swimmer, campaigned on affordability and health care, while Hinson, a three-term House member endorsed by President Trump, ran on continuing Republican control of the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. Turek is the first Democrat to win an Iowa Senate race since 2008 and the first to hold the seat since Tom Harkin's 2015 retirement.
The outcome fit a broader pattern in the 2026 midterms, in which Democrats flipped several Republican-held Senate seats, including in Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, to retake majority control of the chamber. The community's forecast matched the outcome: 60% of predictors anticipated a Turek win. Hinson conceded the race, saying she and Turek "disagree on a lot" but hoped they could still work together going forward.