Datafolha has Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% before Brazil's Oct 4 vote. Will Lula finish first?
82% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 11 predictions cast.
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva did not finish first in the October 4, 2026 first round of Brazil's presidential election. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro edged him out, taking roughly 47% of the vote to Lula's approximately 45%, according to Brazil's electoral court (TSE), with more than 99% of ballots counted. Because neither candidate cleared the majority needed for outright victory, the two advance to an October 25 runoff.
Bolsonaro's first-place finish reversed what pre-election polling had shown. Datafolha's final survey had Lula at 39% to Bolsonaro's 36%, and other private polls in the run-up to the vote forecast Lula leading by roughly three percentage points. Analysts attributed the shift to stronger-than-anticipated turnout for Bolsonaro outside his traditional base.
The Predict Six community got this one wrong: 82% predicted Lula would finish first, reflecting the polling consensus heading into election day, but the actual vote count put Bolsonaro ahead instead. The gap between the final pre-election polling and the actual result marked one of the larger polling misses of the cycle, foreshadowing a closely fought runoff between Brazil's incumbent president and his right-wing challenger later in October.