Trump won Nebraska by 20 and rallied there Oct 5. Can independent Dan Osborn still unseat Pete Ricketts on Nov 3?
67% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 9 predictions cast.
Republican Senator Pete Ricketts won reelection in Nebraska, defeating independent Dan Osborn in a race the Associated Press called in the early hours of November 4, 2026. The initial call had Ricketts at roughly 50.3% to Osborn's 43.9%; later counts, with more than 95% of precincts reporting, showed a similar margin of about 50.4% to 43.7%. Osborn's campaign confirmed his concession Wednesday afternoon.
President Trump carried Nebraska by about 20 points in the 2024 presidential election and returned to the state for a rally on October 5, 2026, underscoring its heavy Republican lean. Osborn, a former union leader running as a nonpartisan independent for the second straight cycle, campaigned on economic populism and sought crossover support, but could not overcome the state's partisan baseline even in a midterm cycle that saw Democrats make gains in several other states.
Final, certified totals from the Nebraska Secretary of State remained pending at the time of the call, but the outcome was not close enough to be in doubt. The prediction market correctly anticipated this result, with only 33% of recorded votes favoring an Osborn upset, consistent with Ricketts holding the seat for another term.