Peggy Flanagan leads former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya by 1.5 points in Minnesota. Will she win by 5-plus on Nov 3?
67% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 9 predictions cast.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the state's open U.S. Senate seat by a comfortable double-digit margin over Republican Michele Tafoya, clearing the 5-point threshold in this question with room to spare. With nearly all votes counted, Flanagan led Tafoya roughly 53.7% to 43.6%, according to Fox 9's tracking of the November 3, 2026 results — a gap of about 10 points, well beyond the 1.5-point lead a late poll had shown her carrying into Election Day.
Flanagan, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee, won her primary in August with nearly 59% of the vote, while Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter running as a Trump-aligned Republican, won a competitive GOP primary. Flanagan's eventual margin was fueled by strong performances in Minnesota's populous counties, including a more than 51-point advantage in Ramsey County, even as Tafoya carried most of the state's 87 counties, largely rural ones. Tafoya conceded late on election night.
The widening of Flanagan's lead in the race's final week tracked with public polling, including a New York Times/Siena survey showing her advantage growing to 14 points shortly before the vote. The Predict Six community correctly anticipated a wide Flanagan win, with 67% of voters forecasting she would clear the 5-point margin among nine votes cast.