Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Will Roger Marshall hold his seat on Nov 3?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 0 predictions cast.
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall lost his bid for a second term in Kansas, falling to Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton in the November 3, 2026 election, according to the Associated Press and reporting from NPR and the Washington Post. The defeat ended 94 years of unbroken Republican control of the seat, a streak dating to 1932.
Hamilton, senior pastor of a large Kansas City-area megachurch, ran as a moderate Democrat and leaned on record-breaking fundraising to compete in a state President Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Marshall, a physician first elected in 2020, had been a reliable ally of the Trump administration. The race tightened through the fall as independent handicappers moved their rating from "Safe Republican" in August to a toss-up by late October, with one late poll showing Hamilton narrowly ahead, 46.1% to 45.2%. National Democratic groups, including Senate Majority PAC, poured late money into the race once it emerged as a plausible path to a Senate majority.
No pre-resolution community consensus was recorded on Predict Six for this specific question, since zero votes were cast, so there is no community accuracy to assess here. Hamilton's win was one of several Republican-held Senate seats Democrats flipped that night as part of a broader midterm wave.