Will Ademola Adeleke win re-election as governor of Osun State on August 15?
50% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
Ademola Adeleke won re-election as governor of Osun State in the August 15, 2026 governorship election, with Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission declaring him the winner on August 16. Running under the Accord Party after decamping from the PDP, Adeleke polled 511,067 votes (50.8 percent) against 444,815 votes (44.2 percent) for the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, a margin of 66,252 votes out of roughly 1,005,800 ballots cast. Adeleke carried 19 of the state's 30 local government areas to Oyebamiji's 11, while a field of 15 candidates in total contested the seat; Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress placed a distant third with 17,180 votes. The result secures Adeleke a second term after he first won the governorship in 2022, and it keeps the office under his control despite his mid-term party switch to Accord ahead of this cycle's vote. The prediction market on this question was evenly split, with the community's yes share at exactly 50 percent among just two voters, reflecting genuine uncertainty going into a closely contested race that Adeleke ultimately won by a single-digit percentage margin.