Will a federal appeals court let the Postal Service's new mail-ballot rules take effect before Sept 12?
70% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 20 predictions cast.
A three-judge panel of the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals denied the Trump administration's request to lift a preliminary injunction blocking the U.S. Postal Service's new mail-ballot rules on September 10, 2026. The panel found the administration had not shown that U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani erred in concluding the rule, which imposed new envelope-design, barcode and voter-list requirements, would likely disenfranchise millions of voters for minimal anti-fraud benefit. The injunction, sought by a coalition of roughly two dozen Democratic-led states and voting-rights groups, remained in effect, and the new rules did not take effect before September 12.
The court cited the risk of disrupting an election already underway, with mail ballots going out in some states, as outweighing the government's stated anti-fraud rationale for implementing the rule on short notice.
The prediction-market community had put 30% odds on the appeals court letting the rules take effect, and the majority view proved correct. The ruling kept the Postal Service operating under its prior mail-ballot procedures pending further litigation.