The Strait of Hormuz has been shut since February, and Washington says every mine is cleared. Will Iran declare it open before Sept 12?
68% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 19 predictions cast.
The Strait of Hormuz remained closed as of September 12, 2026, and Iran had not declared it open despite U.S. claims that mines blocking the waterway had been cleared. The strait has been shut since a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran began in late February 2026, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard separately declaring it closed in July. Iran's deputy foreign minister publicly disputed Washington's mine-clearing claim.
Rather than easing, the broader conflict escalated on other fronts in the days before the deadline: Iran-backed Houthi forces seized full control of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including the port of Mocha and the approaches to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and strikes inside Saudi Arabia forced the shutdown of the kingdom's East-West oil pipeline. Shipping traffic through Hormuz stayed minimal, at roughly six vessels a day versus about 85 before the war.
With the conflict widening rather than winding down, Iran had no apparent incentive to declare the strait open. The prediction-market community had put 32% odds on Iran making that declaration, and the majority view proved correct.