Will Wed's report on New Home Sales exceed the forecast of 634k units? Overall pending sales are up!
63% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 40 predictions cast.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported on June 25, 2026, that new single-family home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units in May, missing the forecast of approximately 634,000 units and falling 7.3% from Aprils revised figure of 626,000. The result marked the second consecutive monthly decline and a four-month low.
Elevated mortgage rates were the primary driver. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.44% in May — the highest level since August 2025 — up from 6.33% in April, squeezing affordability for prospective buyers and pushing sales below all economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The median sale price of a new home was $424,900, effectively unchanged from a year earlier.
The miss was notable because earlier indicators, including pending home sales, had pointed to improving momentum. Instead, the rate sensitivity of the new-home market reasserted itself. Inventory edged higher to an estimated 496,000 homes for sale, suggesting builders continued adding supply even as demand softened. The Predict Six community, 63% of whom expected sales to exceed the 634,000 forecast, was on the wrong side of the outcome.