Crude fell 5.9% to $79.67 on Aug 3 as Iran talks resumed. Will WTI close below $75 a barrel before Aug 12?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
West Texas Intermediate crude did not close below $75 a barrel at any point before August 12, resolving the question NO. WTI fell 5.9% to $79.67 on August 3 amid uncertainty tied to renewed Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz tensions, but the contract held well above the $75 threshold through the following week. Prices dipped to roughly $78 around August 10 before recovering, and by the following days WTI climbed back past $82.
The rebound reflected easing supply fears as diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran progressed without disrupting Hormuz shipping traffic. Reports on August 3 noted President Trump had called off a planned strike on Iran, reducing the risk premium embedded in oil prices, while continued uncertainty over a broader U.S.-Iran deal kept traders cautious rather than pushing prices toward the lower end of the range. Broader oil-market sentiment through the period was shaped by competing pressures from geopolitical risk on one side and expectations of ample global supply on the other, keeping WTI range-bound between roughly $78 and $82 rather than breaking decisively lower.
Community forecasters were evenly split heading into resolution, with a 50 percent yes probability across two votes, reflecting genuine uncertainty at the time. The outcome came in on the no side of that toss-up, as crude prices stabilized above $75 rather than extending their early-August decline.