Inflation ran at 3.4% in July. Will August's CPI, out Sept 11, come in at 3.5% or higher?
61% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 18 predictions cast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 11, 2026, that the consumer price index rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, matching July's rate rather than accelerating to 3.5% or higher. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month, pushing the annual core rate down slightly to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. Gasoline prices climbed 3.9% in August, accounting for more than a third of the month's overall 0.4% price increase, as tensions in the Middle East kept energy costs elevated.
The report landed as markets weighed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had signaled at the Jackson Hole conference in late August that the central bank still had work to do on inflation, and futures markets raised the probability of a hike to roughly 85% following the CPI release, up from about 59% a week earlier.
The prediction-market community had put 61% odds on CPI coming in at 3.5% or higher, and the majority view proved wrong: the headline rate held steady at 3.4%, staying below the threshold even as underlying price pressures, particularly energy costs, kept inflation elevated.