Will U.S. inflation reach 4% or higher year-over-year when May CPI is released June 10? 3.8% in April.
71% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 31 predictions cast.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10, 2026, that the Consumer Price Index rose 4.2 percent year-over-year in May, up from 3.8 percent in April and exceeding the 4-percent threshold for the first time since early 2023. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, a slight deceleration from April's 0.6 percent gain. Energy costs were the dominant driver, climbing 23.5 percent annually — compared to 17.9 percent in April — reflecting supply disruptions tied to U.S.-Iran military tensions and constrained oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Shelter costs, which carry more than one-third of the CPI's weighting, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose a more moderate 2.9 percent annually. The 71 percent of Predict Six participants who predicted inflation above 4 percent correctly anticipated the compounding effects of tariffs and geopolitical energy shocks that have pushed consumer prices steadily higher throughout 2026.