Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz shut since July; about one ship a day gets through. Will the strait reopen to traffic by Oct 8?

The Strait of Hormuz remained closed to normal commercial traffic through October 8, with no reopening occurring by the question's deadline. Attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers in the strait intensified in early October, with at least 12 vessels targeted during the week of September 28 to October 5, the highest weekly total since the Iran war began. Two tankers were struck on October 2, and another, the Lipsi, was hit in its engine room on October 5. Maritime trackers estimated daily transits had fallen to roughly 10 vessels, against a pre-crisis baseline of about 85 per day.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the strait would be treated as defying its restrictions, and a senior Iranian cleric said the strait would not reopen until Tehran's conditions, including an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions relief, were fully met. Oil prices climbed on the continued disruption, with Brent crude trading near $101 a barrel in early October. The United States, for its part, maintained a counter-blockade of Iranian oil exports.

Every forecaster on this question correctly anticipated the outcome, with community sentiment at 0% predicting "yes" that the strait would reopen, matching the actual result exactly.