The last NYT/Siena poll of Iowa had Josh Turek up 48-47. Does he win the Senate seat on Nov 3?
88% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 8 predictions cast.
Democrat Josh Turek won Iowa's U.S. Senate seat in the Nov. 3, 2026 election, defeating Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in a race the Associated Press called for Turek, according to NPR and Dakota News Now. The result flips the seat held by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst and ends more than a decade of Republican control of both of Iowa's Senate seats.
The race had been among the tightest in the country through the fall; an Emerson poll in October had shown Hinson leading by two points, while a later YouGov survey put Turek narrowly ahead. In the campaign's final stretch, Turek significantly outraised Hinson, helping fuel a late surge that held even as Iowa has trended Republican in recent statewide elections.
Turek's win was part of a broader Democratic breakthrough across the Senate map on election night, with the party also flipping seats in states including Texas, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina to retake control of the chamber for the first time in years.
The Predict Six community correctly called this one: 88% of forecasters expected Turek to win, and he did.