Dan Osborn is running as an independent in a state Trump won by 20 points. Can he beat Pete Ricketts on Nov 3?
70% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 10 predictions cast.
Independent Dan Osborn's second bid to flip a Nebraska U.S. Senate seat fell short, as Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts won reelection in a race the Associated Press called early on November 4, 2026. Initial returns had Ricketts ahead 50.3% to 43.9%; later counts, with more than 95% of precincts reporting, showed a similar margin of about 50.4% to 43.7%. Osborn conceded Wednesday afternoon.
Nebraska's deep Republican lean proved decisive. Nebraska backed President Trump by about 20 points in the 2024 presidential election, and the state's structural advantage for the GOP held even as Osborn, a former labor-union leader, ran as a nonpartisan independent and avoided formal ties to either national party. He had lost a similar Senate challenge to Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024; accounts of whether his 2026 showing against Ricketts improved or worsened on that result varied depending on when in the count they were published.
Decision Desk HQ's final pre-election polling average had shown a tighter race, 47.7% to 45.6% for Ricketts, than the roughly 6.5-point margin the actual result delivered. The prediction market leaned correctly toward Ricketts on this question, with only 30% of recorded votes favoring an Osborn win, matching the eventual outcome.