Saharan dust has the Atlantic quiet. Will the hurricane center give any system a 40% formation chance before Aug 12?
50% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
The National Hurricane Center assigned at least one Atlantic disturbance a 40% chance of tropical formation within seven days as of Aug. 10, 2026, according to a report from public radio station WUFT. Forecasters were tracking three separate disturbances in the basin that day: one north of Bermuda and two tropical waves farther east, including a system near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles given the 40% formation odds. None of the systems posed an immediate threat to land at the time of the report. The activity came despite an unusually quiet stretch for the basin in prior weeks, which forecasters had attributed partly to Saharan dust suppressing development. The uptick coincided with the build toward the traditionally most active stretch of the Atlantic season, mid-August through October, even as NOAA's broader seasonal outlook, updated days earlier, called for a below-normal year overall due to a strengthening El Nino. Formation odds fluctuate as the National Hurricane Center reissues its Tropical Weather Outlook up to four times daily. The community was split evenly on this question, with half of votes correctly anticipating a system would reach the 40% threshold before Aug. 12.