November 8, 2026

Democrats won control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the Nov. 3, 2026 midterms, with projections from CBS News and NBC News putting their total in the mid-250s, well above both the 235-seat threshold in this market and Nate Silver's pre-election model average of 238.7 seats. CBS News estimated Democrats would hold roughly 256 seats once final counts were complete, while NBC News's tracker showed an estimate as high as 259 against the 218 needed for a majority. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said he expected his party to win at least 255 seats once all votes were tallied. The gains represented a net swing of more than 40 seats from the 214 Democrats held entering the election, which NBC News reported would be the party's largest House majority since 1993 if the estimates hold. Several races in Maine, Montana, Florida and Alaska remained uncalled days after the election as counting continued. The House result capped a broader midterm sweep in which Democrats also won the Senate. No votes were recorded on this market, so there is no community prediction to measure against the outcome.

The New York Giants beat the Philadelphia Eagles 19-11 on Nov. 8, 2026, at Lincoln Financial Field, extending the Eagles' losing streak to seven games and dropping them to 2-7, their longest skid since 2012, according to ESPN. Giants backup quarterback Jameis Winston, filling in for injured starter J.J. McCarthy, threw the go-ahead touchdown pass, a 5-yarder to Isaiah Likely, before McCarthy returned and finished 12-of-19 passing for 127 yards. Kicker Domenic Zvada added four field goals for New York. According to NBC Sports, the win was the Giants' first in Philadelphia since 2013, snapping a 13-game road losing streak against the Eagles at that stadium. New York improved to 5-2-1 and moved into first place in the NFC East. The loss deepened a difficult stretch for Philadelphia, which had entered the game already facing public scrutiny of head coach Nick Sirianni's job security amid the six-game losing streak referenced in this market. Predict Six's community unanimously predicted the Eagles would lose, with 0% of the market's eight voters picking Philadelphia to win.

No. 4 Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 on Nov. 7, 2026, at Notre Dame Stadium, ending Miami's unbeaten season and marking the first time in seven years the Fighting Irish had knocked off the nation's top-ranked team, according to ESPN and Sports Illustrated. Notre Dame built a 24-3 lead in the third quarter before Miami, behind quarterback Darian Mensah's three touchdown passes, mounted a comeback that twice brought the Hurricanes within one score. The game ended on a disputed non-call: officials ruled that Miami receiver Elija Lofton did not complete what would have been a go-ahead touchdown catch with 3:36 remaining, a call Miami coach Mario Cristobal said afterward he was “beyond upset” about. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Micah Gilbert. Miami, playing without injured receiver Malachi Toney, fell to 8-1, leaving only two unbeaten teams remaining in major college football. Predict Six's community largely anticipated the outcome, with just 17% of the market's voters picking Miami to stay undefeated.

No. 9 Alabama beat No. 15 LSU 31-13 on Nov. 7, 2026, in Baton Rouge, denying the Tigers a win in a game where LSU had opened as a betting favorite over Alabama for the first time since 2007, according to ESPN and Sports Illustrated. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes despite what he described afterward as a minor ankle injury. LSU outgained Alabama 457 yards to 285 in total offense but could not finish drives, going 0-for-4 on fourth-down conversion attempts in a game decided by those red-zone and short-yardage failures. The result moved Alabama to 7-2 overall and 5-2 in Southeastern Conference play, while LSU fell to 6-3 and 3-3 in the conference. The loss reasserted Alabama's recent dominance in a rivalry LSU had hoped to flip behind a stronger 2026 season, and it complicated the Tigers' postseason positioning in a crowded SEC field. Predict Six's community largely anticipated the result: only 40% of the five voters on this market picked LSU to win, matching the actual outcome.

Iran did not announce a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Nov. 7, 2026, despite a seven-day roadmap under which Tehran said the waterway would reopen on day six if Washington met its conditions, according to CBS News. Those conditions included lifting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil exports, releasing roughly $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and observing a broader regional ceasefire covering Lebanon and Yemen. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said in early November the terms remained on the table, but gave no indication Washington had accepted them or that Tehran had revised its demands. Al Jazeera reported on Nov. 2 that Tehran was pushing for an accelerated ceasefire timeline, while U.S. officials said no deadline had been set for resuming military action. The strait, a critical corridor for global oil shipments, had been closed to vessels transiting without Iranian coordination since fighting escalated earlier in 2026. With negotiations unresolved, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps kept the closure in place past the market's Nov. 7 cutoff. The community's prediction on this question was an even split, reflecting the uncertainty around the ongoing talks.

Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate in the Nov. 3, 2026 midterms, securing at least 54 seats to Republicans' 44 as final counts in Alaska and Mississippi remained outstanding, according to NBC News and CBS News. The result cleared the 52-seat threshold in this market, a net gain of five or more seats from the pre-election 53-47 Republican majority. Democrats flipped seats long held by Republicans in Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Maine, where six-term Sen. Susan Collins lost her re-election bid. CBS News described the results as among the most decisive of the election cycle, and NPR reported that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the shift a “generational remake” of the chamber. The Senate flip came alongside Democratic gains in the House and in several governor's races the same night, part of a broader midterm wave largely attributed to voter backlash against the Trump administration's economic and foreign policy record. No votes were recorded on this market, so there is no community prediction to measure against the outcome.