November 1, 2026

Skydance did not disclose a specific layoff number by Oct. 31, 2026, instead rolling out a voluntary buyout program alongside a new five-day in-office mandate. Under the plan, eligible employees who receive a buyout offer must submit their decision by 11 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 8, 2026.

Co-CEOs David Ellison and Ynon Kreiz acknowledged in an internal memo that the company's post-merger integration with Paramount would result in job losses, writing that "we recognize that not everyone will see their future here, and we respect that," but they did not attach a headcount figure to the cuts. The company has said it is targeting $6 billion in cost savings, a figure spanning multiple business functions beyond payroll, and it has not specified how much of that target will come from reduced staff. The five-day office requirement is being phased in across company locations.

The community had put the odds of a disclosed layoff number at 38%, below even odds; the majority correctly anticipated that Skydance would avoid naming a specific figure before the deadline.

The Baltimore Ravens lost 36-10 to the Buffalo Bills on Nov. 1, 2026, falling to 4-4 and extending their losing streak to three games. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, returning from a three-game absence due to a left ankle sprain, was injured on Baltimore's first offensive snap and left the game immediately. Coach Jesse Minter said afterward that Jackson suffered a right thumb injury requiring surgery and would be placed on injured reserve, with a chance he misses the remainder of the season.

Backup Tyler Huntley also exited with a toe injury in the second quarter, forcing third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano to finish the game for Baltimore. Buffalo's defense forced three turnovers, recorded four sacks and held the Ravens to 144 total yards.

The loss compounded a difficult stretch for a Baltimore team that was already shorthanded at quarterback entering the game and left Buffalo in worse shape at the position. The community had unanimously predicted a Ravens loss, with 0% expecting a win, matching the final result.

The United States did not conduct military strikes on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, consistent with President Trump's public pledge. Trump stated on Oct. 8, 2026, that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," citing ongoing diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, said Iran had received a U.S. counterproposal and would respond formally.

Despite continued U.S. military buildup in the region -- including deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt -- and reports that the Pentagon had presented Trump with options to resume strikes, no attack occurred through Oct. 31. Trump had left open the possibility of renewed action after the midterms, telling Time on Oct. 1 that resuming strikes was "possible," and later reporting indicated internal administration discussions about contingency plans continued even as the public commitment held.

The question resolved "no." The community had assigned only a 10% probability to a strike occurring before Oct. 31, correctly anticipating the outcome.

The Milwaukee Brewers won the first World Series championship in franchise history on Oct. 28, 2026, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 4-1 in Game 5 at Tropicana Field to take the series four games to one. Right-hander Jacob Misiorowski pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings, and catcher William Contreras, named series MVP, anchored an offense that outscored Tampa Bay in four of the five games.

Milwaukee won Games 1 through 3 (3-2, 5-4, 10-1) before the Rays forced a fifth game with a 4-3, 12-inning win in Game 4. The 103-win Brewers, who had never previously reached a World Series, closed out the title on the road against a Rays team making its first Series appearance since 2008.

The championship capped a season in which Milwaukee set a franchise record for regular-season wins, entering the postseason as one of baseball's most dominant teams. The community had put a 92% probability on a Brewers title, correctly anticipating the outcome.

A24's "You Can See Everything," a documentary about Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, finished its Halloween-weekend run with a domestic total of roughly $63.8 million to $63.9 million, falling short of the $65 million threshold. The film earned an estimated $10.5 million to $10.6 million over the Oct. 30-Nov. 1 weekend, narrowly edging DC's horror release "Clayface" for the No. 1 spot in what distributors described as a slow Halloween box-office frame.

The documentary had opened to a surprising $15 million from 855 locations and built momentum through word of mouth, pushing past $45 million after its second weekend before this third-weekend tally left it just under the $65 million mark. The shortfall came despite the film ranking among the highest-grossing documentaries of all time relative to its roughly $7 million production budget.

The community had put the odds of clearing $65 million at 60%; the actual result fell short, meaning the majority's prediction was wrong. The film remained within reach of all-time documentary box-office records but did not cross the specific dollar threshold by the Nov. 1 cutoff.