October 23, 2026

Israel's military coordination body, COGAT, halted the entry of commercial goods into Gaza starting October 15, 2026, citing what it described as a decision by Gazan merchants to stop coordinating shipments, according to Al Jazeera and ITV News. COGAT said merchants told it the halt stemmed from a 10,000-shekel (about $3,220) fee Hamas was charging per truck, plus a demand that 30% of merchants' sales proceeds be paid in cash.

The head of Gaza's private truckers union disputed Israel's account, saying Israeli authorities, not the merchants, had imposed the restriction, though he acknowledged Hamas was seeking the per-truck payment. Gaza, under blockade since the war began, relies entirely on goods Israel permits through its border crossings. COGAT's own daily throughput figures of roughly 250 trucks already ran well below the 600-truck daily minimum set by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement a year earlier.

No commercial resumption was reported by the October 20 deadline the question tracked, consistent with continuing warnings from hunger-monitoring groups about worsening shortages across the territory's 2.1 million residents.

Predict Six's community leaned toward 'no' at 46% yes, matching the eventual outcome.

Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on October 23, 2026, up 3.1% on the day and its highest close since April 29, according to CNBC and Rio Times Online. The jump came amid escalating tension in the Middle East, including expectations that the United States would resume strikes on Iran in the coming weeks.

The rally built on weeks of disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces had struck at least nine vessels since October 11, prompting shippers to divert or delay tankers through a chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply. Additional pressure came from Houthi attacks threatening Saudi Arabian infrastructure and from reduced output at two Libyan oilfields, compounding an already tight market.

West Texas Intermediate also climbed, settling near $103 a barrel the same day, a 3.8% gain.

Brent had been trading around $109.86 in the days before the Hormuz attacks intensified, so the move above $115 marked a sustained acceleration rather than a single-day spike.

Predict Six's community had put only 25% odds on Brent clearing $115 by October 23, so the majority view underestimated how far the escalation would push prices.

The FDA approved phentolamine ophthalmic solution 0.75% (brand name Ryzumvi) for the treatment of presbyopia in adults on October 16, 2026, ahead of its October 17 target decision date, according to Healio and a Viatris press release. The approval is a supplemental indication: Ryzumvi was already cleared to reverse pharmacologically induced pupil dilation, and the new approval extends its label to presbyopia, the age-related loss of near vision commonly corrected with reading glasses.

The decision rested on Opus Genetics' Phase 3 VEGA-2 and VEGA-3 trials, which the company said met their primary and key secondary endpoints with no treatment-related serious adverse events. The most common side effects were mild and temporary eye redness and application-site irritation. Phentolamine narrows the pupil through alpha-adrenergic receptor blockade, without acting on the eye's focusing muscle.

Viatris holds exclusive U.S. commercialization rights to Ryzumvi under a licensing agreement with Opus Genetics, and the approval triggers a milestone payment to Opus. Viatris said it is still seeking a commercial partner specifically for the presbyopia indication.

Predict Six's community put only 38% odds on approval happening by the deadline, so the majority outlook did not match the eventual outcome.