October 13, 2026

Legal challenges to President Trump's cancellation of $810 million in congressionally approved funding had already mounted by October 13, 2026. Roll Call reported on October 2 that the administration faced federal lawsuits from housing organizations, education grant recipients and several states, who argued the funding cancellation -- a maneuver known as a "pocket rescission" -- violated both federal budget law and the Constitution.

The litigation followed a September 29 opinion from the Government Accountability Office, which concluded that the pocket rescission was illegal because it let already-appropriated funds expire before Congress could act, in violation of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act. The GAO's finding gave challengers a nonbinding but influential legal basis for their suits. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins and other lawmakers, including some Republicans, publicly criticized the move, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he expected the matter to ultimately be settled in court.

A similar pocket-rescission tactic in 2025 had drawn a Supreme Court order allowing a funding freeze to proceed while litigation continued, without a final ruling on the practice's legality, suggesting this round of challenges could follow a similarly protracted path through the courts.

The Predict Six community correctly predicted a lawsuit would be filed, with 92% forecasting that outcome.

Lamar Jackson did not start for the Baltimore Ravens against the Atlanta Falcons on October 11, 2026. The team ruled him out on the Friday before the game with an ankle sprain sustained during Baltimore's Week 4 win over the Tennessee Titans, when he was injured on a sack and did not return for the second half. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, who had filled in during that second half, was named the starter against Atlanta.

Reports indicated the injury was not considered season-ending or likely to require surgery, but team and media sources said Jackson could miss more than one game depending on how his recovery progressed. The decision to sit Jackson against Atlanta reflected a cautious approach to a recurring injury concern for a quarterback whose game relies heavily on mobility.

The ruling came after a week of uncertainty in which Jackson was initially described as a "longshot" possibility to play, before the Ravens officially downgraded him to out. His absence put additional pressure on Huntley to carry Baltimore's offense on the road against Atlanta.

The Predict Six community correctly anticipated the decision, with just 38% predicting Jackson would start.

JPMorgan Chase did not clear $5.88 per share in its third-quarter 2026 results, reported October 13, 2026. The bank posted diluted earnings per share of $5.57 on net income of about $15.3 billion, up 10% from a year earlier but below Wall Street's consensus estimate of roughly $5.93 to $5.94 per share. Excluding a $658 million investment securities loss, adjusted EPS came to $5.75 -- still short of the $5.88 threshold and analyst expectations.

Managed revenue rose 8% to $50.9 billion, and return on tangible common equity was 20%, showing continued underlying strength in the bank's core businesses even as the headline profit figure fell short of forecasts. The shortfall followed a stronger second quarter, when JPMorgan's adjusted EPS of $6.14 had beaten expectations by a wide margin, making the third-quarter result a step down in year-over-year earnings momentum despite still-solid revenue growth.

Shares reportedly rose in premarket trading despite the miss, suggesting investors focused on the bank's revenue growth and balance sheet strength rather than the earnings shortfall relative to estimates.

The Predict Six community got this one badly wrong: 90% predicted JPMorgan would top $5.88 a share, but the bank came in below that bar.

OpenAI, Anthropic and Google had not announced a joint AI safety standards body by October 12, 2026. Reporting through September and into October described the three companies as still negotiating the shape of a voluntary, industry-led body rather than preparing to formally launch one. One proposed name circulating in coverage was the "Standards Authority for Frontier AI," though the companies involved had not confirmed a final structure, and reports disagreed on whether the body would include government oversight or operate as industry self-regulation.

The talks trace back to a July proposal from Google DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis for a U.S.-led standards body modeled partly on the financial industry's FINRA. OpenAI policy chief Chris Lehane confirmed the three companies were collaborating and argued an antitrust waiver should not be necessary for safety-focused coordination, but unresolved antitrust questions were among the reasons cited for the delay. Separately, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay in mid-September calling for slower capability development and proposing independent evaluators with employee-level model access, reflecting continued internal debate over governance approaches even as a formal joint body remained unannounced.

The Predict Six community got this one wrong, with 57% predicting an announcement that did not materialize by the deadline.

The Atlantic hurricane season produced its first hurricane of 2026, Isaias, which struck the Gulf Coast in early October after forming from a tropical disturbance that strengthened over the Gulf of Mexico. By October 10, at least two deaths were attributed to the storm after it moved through Florida and Alabama, bringing flooding, wind damage and widespread power outages to the region.

The named storm came after an unusually quiet season: September 2026 had ended without a single Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 1994, despite the Atlantic already producing eight named tropical storms. Forecasters had flagged an area of interest in the Gulf in early October as the most likely candidate to finally produce a hurricane, and Isaias was named and subsequently strengthened to hurricane status before making its Gulf Coast landfall.

The storm's formation ended a stretch of below-average hurricane activity relative to recent seasons, even as the broader 2026 Atlantic season remained active in terms of the number of named systems. Isaias's landfall caused significant regional disruption, including fatalities and infrastructure damage across the Southeast.

The Predict Six community got this one wrong: only 27% predicted a hurricane would form by the deadline, but Isaias did.

The United States had not conducted a military strike on Iran by October 12, 2026. The question followed President Trump's late-September rejection of an Iranian offer for a seven-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, after earlier rounds of U.S.-Iran strikes and counterstrikes over the summer had repeatedly broken down prior ceasefire attempts. Through early October, reporting indicated the administration was still weighing options rather than ordering new action: media accounts said the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options that could be executed before the November 3 midterm elections, without a decision having been made public.

Trump said on October 8 that negotiations with Tehran were continuing and that he expected the broader conflict to wind down, even as he reiterated skepticism about reaching a formal deal. Iran, meanwhile, continued to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping regional tensions elevated and oil markets on edge even without a new U.S. strike.

The absence of action by the deadline reflected an uneasy pause rather than resolution, with both diplomatic talks and renewed strike planning proceeding in parallel through the window covered by this question.

The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Rams 37-34 in overtime on Monday Night Football on October 12, 2026, at SoFi Stadium, improving to 4-1 while dropping the Rams to 2-3. Los Angeles forced overtime when running back Kyren Williams scored on a 1-yard touchdown run with five seconds left in regulation, tying the game at 34-34. In overtime, Rams kicker Harrison Mevis had a potential game-winning field goal attempt blocked, and Buffalo's Tyler Bass converted a 45-yard field goal to secure the win.

Quarterback Josh Allen ran for 121 yards to go with his passing production, recording his first overtime win as a professional, while running back James Cook added 111 rushing yards on the ground. The Bills entered the game 3-1, while the Rams were 2-2 and favored at home, making Buffalo's comeback and overtime finish one of the more dramatic results of NFL Week 5.

The win kept Buffalo among the AFC's top teams early in the season and handed the Rams their second straight loss.

The Predict Six community correctly favored Buffalo, with 67% predicting the Bills would win.

Bitcoin did not close above $88,000 on October 12, 2026. The cryptocurrency traded in the low-to-mid $80,000s through much of early-to-mid October, briefly touching about $86,460 on October 2 ahead of a U.S. jobs report before pulling back. By October 13, Bitcoin was changing hands around $83,000 to $83,500, having faced repeated selling pressure near $84,000, with resistance identified in the $86,000 to $87,000 range.

The question referenced Bitcoin's prior peak of $126,080 reached a year earlier, a level the asset has not approached again amid a prolonged pullback through 2026. Price action tracked broader macro sentiment, including anticipation of the Federal Reserve's late-October policy meeting and a closely watched consumer price index report, both cited by traders as near-term catalysts that kept the asset rangebound below $88,000 rather than breaking higher.

This extended a months-long pattern in which Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim levels last seen in late 2025 and early 2026, with analysts pointing to softer institutional inflows and broader risk-asset caution as factors keeping prices below prior highs.

The Predict Six community correctly leaned "no," with only 38% predicting Bitcoin would close above $88,000.

Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 13, 2026, that topped Wall Street's revenue target. Net revenue rose 23% year-over-year to $18.68 billion, comfortably clearing both the $17 billion threshold and analyst consensus estimates of roughly $16.8 billion to $16.9 billion. Net earnings were $5.29 billion, or $17.01 per diluted share, up from $12.25 a year earlier and well above consensus EPS estimates near $13.

The beat was driven primarily by equities trading, where revenue surged 72% to $6.44 billion amid strong client activity in global stock markets. Investment banking fees rose 21% to $3.22 billion, while fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) revenue slipped 1% to $3.47 billion. The results followed a record second quarter, bringing Goldman's nine-month 2026 revenue to roughly $56 billion.

Shares rose in early trading following the report, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the equities-led strength. The results extended a stretch of outperformance for large U.S. banks this earnings season, with trading and dealmaking revenue proving resilient despite a choppier macro backdrop earlier in the year.

The Predict Six community was evenly split heading into the report, with exactly 50% predicting revenue would top $17 billion -- matching the eventual outcome.

Apple held its "Welcome home" event on October 13, 2026, at an in-person gathering in Tribeca, New York, and unveiled its long-rumored smart-home hub, a touchscreen device reported under the name "Home View." The launch followed months of reporting, including from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, that Apple was preparing a square touchscreen hub paired with HomePod-like audio hardware as its entry into the smart-home display category long dominated by Amazon's Echo Show and Google's Nest Hub. Alongside the hub, Apple also introduced an updated HomePod mini and refreshed Apple TV 4K hardware.

Apple teased the event on October 8 with a "Welcome home" tagline posted by marketing chief Greg Joswiak, fueling weeks of speculation beforehand. The hub had been expected to run on a custom Apple chip with Thread, Matter and Wi-Fi 7 support, positioning it as a hub for Apple's home ecosystem rather than a standalone speaker.

The event marks Apple's most significant push into dedicated smart-home hardware since HomePod's original 2018 launch, following years of speculation that the company would build a screen-equipped hub to compete directly with rivals' established home-display products.

The Predict Six community correctly anticipated the announcement, with 75% predicting Apple would unveil a hub.

The United States, Ukraine and Russia had not held a trilateral meeting by October 12, 2026. On September 25, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Washington had proposed a technical-level, three-way meeting in the United Arab Emirates to explore a resolution to the war, and that Kyiv was waiting for the U.S. to set a date. He added he expected clarity within about ten days. By October 4, Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine remained ready for U.S.-backed talks with Russia, but no date, venue confirmation or agenda had been finalized by either side. The Kremlin signaled openness to a trilateral format but did not commit to scheduling specifics either.

The delay reflects the difficulty of aligning Washington, Kyiv and Moscow on format and substance before any session, including unresolved territorial questions that had derailed an earlier round of talks in Abu Dhabi earlier in the year. This question follows months of on-and-off diplomatic signaling around a possible Ukraine ceasefire, with the UAE repeatedly floated as a neutral host.

The Predict Six community leaned toward "no," with 46% predicting yes, matching the eventual outcome that no meeting occurred by the deadline.