September 25, 2026

President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law on September 18, 2026, well ahead of the question's September 26 deadline. The bill, named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, who championed the legislation before his death in July, had passed the Senate 86-11 and the House 262-159, margins reflecting rare bipartisan agreement in a divided Congress.

The law authorizes the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top purchasers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, targeting revenue Moscow uses to fund its war in Ukraine, and sanctions Vladimir Putin personally along with other Russian officials, banks and a shadow fleet of tankers used to evade existing restrictions. It also renews expiring sanctions on Iran's energy and weapons sectors.

The legislation moved quickly through Congress once House leadership scheduled a vote, despite earlier uncertainty about its prospects, and Trump signed it within days of House passage rather than delaying action. Its passage fit a broader 2026 congressional push to tighten economic pressure on Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The community favored the bill being signed before the deadline (60% Yes), and the outcome confirmed that expectation well ahead of the cutoff.

Costco Wholesale reported fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 24, 2026, that beat Wall Street expectations, posting adjusted earnings per share of $6.75 against a consensus estimate near $6.51-$6.55. Revenue reached roughly $95.7 billion for the quarter, also topping analyst forecasts, while net sales for the 16-week period rose 11.2% year-over-year to $93.9 billion. Comparable sales increased 9.4%, with digitally-enabled sales up 19.5%, reflecting continued strength in both warehouse traffic and e-commerce.

Part of the EPS beat, about $0.15 per share, came from a non-recurring benefit tied to IEEPA tariff refunds the company received during the quarter. For the full fiscal year ended August 30, 2026, Costco's net sales rose 10.1% to $297.2 billion and net income increased to $9.23 billion, or $20.76 per diluted share, up from $18.21 a year earlier.

The results extended Costco's streak of exceeding analyst estimates, driven by steady membership renewal rates and demand for bulk goods and discounted gasoline even amid inflation-conscious consumer spending. The community strongly favored a beat heading into the report (92% Yes), and the outcome matched that expectation, with Costco topping both the earnings and revenue lines analysts had modeled.

The United States, Denmark and Greenland signed a trilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 22, 2026, meeting the question's September 25 deadline. The deal grants Washington an expanded military presence on Greenland, including two additional U.S. military sites, and references cooperation tied to a proposed missile-defense initiative. It also restricts non-NATO countries from establishing bases on the island without agreement from all three parties and tightens screening of foreign investment from non-NATO and non-EU members, aimed at limiting Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic.

The agreement followed months of escalating rhetoric from President Trump, who had repeatedly floated U.S. control over Greenland on national-security grounds, alongside parallel negotiations between Washington, Copenhagen and Nuuk to reach a compromise. Danish and Greenlandic officials framed the outcome as preserving Greenland's sovereignty and self-determination rather than ceding territory, while the U.S. described it as securing "permanent" control over the island's security posture.

The lone community vote on this question had predicted No, but the agreement was signed within the window, resolving the question Yes.

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration on September 24, 2026, to temporarily restore White House press credentials to CNN, MS NOW and Politico, after the outlets sued over a ban imposed the previous weekend. U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly granted a temporary restraining order, finding the ban was likely unconstitutional, and directed officials to respond to the outlets' notice of non-compliance within hours.

The White House confirmed in a court declaration that access had been restored that morning. CNN reporter Betsy Klein, whose hard pass had been revoked days earlier, was seen returning through a White House gate shortly after the ruling. The original ban had followed friction between the outlets and the administration over coverage officials deemed unfavorable.

Complications persisted even after the order: hours later, an MS NOW reporter was denied entry to an arrival ceremony ahead of a state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping, suggesting the restoration of access was not fully consistent in practice.

The community had leaned toward credentials being restored (80% Yes), correctly anticipating court intervention, and the ruling landed within the question's window, resolving it Yes.

The Atlanta Falcons defeated the Green Bay Packers 35-14 at Lambeau Field on September 24, 2026, denying Green Bay a bounce-back win after its 29-0 second-half collapse in Minnesota the previous week. Atlanta built a comfortable lead in the first half behind quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and controlled the game throughout, capitalizing on Packers defensive breakdowns similar to those that had plagued Green Bay in Minneapolis.

Green Bay's offense struggled to sustain drives, and its defense again allowed explosive plays, extending a stretch of poor performances across back-to-back weeks. The loss dropped the Packers to 1-2 on the season and raised questions about the team's defensive scheme and depth at a venue traditionally considered one of the NFL's toughest for visiting teams. Atlanta improved to 2-1, building on momentum from Penix's recent play.

The community had strongly favored Green Bay to win at home (86% Yes), given Lambeau Field's home-field reputation, but the Packers' defensive issues carried over from the prior week and Atlanta's offense exploited them for a lopsided road win. The community got this one wrong by a wide margin.

EU ambassadors failed to approve a full six-month rollover of the bloc's Russia sanctions list by September 22, 2026, instead extending the roughly 3,000 individual and entity listings for only a short additional period while negotiations continued. The renewal, which requires unanimous agreement among all 27 member states, stalled after France and Slovakia pushed to have Russian-born billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman removed from the list before agreeing to a rollover. Facing a midnight deadline on September 22, the EU delisted Usmanov and Fridman to secure a further short-term truce rather than the standard six-month renewal, keeping the broader sanctions regime intact but on a shorter leash than usual.

The standoff reflected a recurring pattern in EU sanctions policy, where the unanimity requirement lets individual member states extract concessions during periodic renewals. Slovakia and France had signaled for over a week that they would not sign off without movement on the two businessmen's status.

The community had leaned toward a full six-month rollover happening on schedule (65% Yes), but the outcome was a partial, short-term extension paired with two delistings rather than the anticipated clean renewal, so the market skewed toward the wrong side of this one.