September 18, 2026

The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, 2026, when a cloture vote to end debate came up short of the 60 votes needed, blocking the crypto market-structure bill before the September 18 deadline. The tally fell short after four Republicans, Jerry Moran, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley and Thom Tillis, joined nearly all Democrats in voting no, according to CNBC and CoinDesk. The bill stalled primarily over new ethics restrictions on public officials' crypto holdings that Republican leaders had added to the text just days earlier to address Democratic concerns about officials profiting from crypto ventures, rather than over the underlying SEC and CFTC market-structure framework the industry had sought. A bloc of Democrats who had spent months negotiating the bill's provisions, including Kirsten Gillibrand, Mark Warner and Cory Booker, ultimately voted against advancing it, leaving the legislation without a near-term path forward. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies dipped as the vote played out. The failure marked a setback for a crypto industry that had lobbied heavily for a comprehensive federal regulatory framework in 2026. A large majority of the Predict Six community, 70%, correctly predicted the bill would not pass by September 18.

Bitcoin did not close below $75,000 by September 18, 2026, instead holding above $76,000 even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16. The Fed lifted its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023, a move markets had priced in with high confidence beforehand, according to CNBC. Bitcoin absorbed the hawkish decision without a sharp selloff: by September 17-18 it traded near $76,000-$76,600, even as U.S. equity indexes fell and Treasury yields rose in the same window, Benzinga reported. The Fed's updated projections showed a median federal funds rate estimate of 4.1% for the end of 2026, implying policymakers expected at least one more increase before year's end, a signal that had been expected to weigh further on risk assets including cryptocurrency. Despite that overhang, and despite bitcoin trading near $77,000 with rate-hike anxiety weighing on the market in the preceding week, the currency held above the $75,000 level that had become a focal point for traders. The Predict Six community had leaned heavily toward a drop below $75,000, with 65% forecasting yes, making this one of the larger community misses in this batch of resolutions. Bitcoin's resilience through the hike reflected broader stabilization after weeks of volatility tied to Fed policy uncertainty.

Houthi missiles and drones wounded more than 70 people and sparked fires at Saudi Aramco facilities in Abha and Jizan on September 8, 2026, but no subsequent strike on Saudi energy infrastructure was confirmed as Houthi-directed before September 14. A drone did hit a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline on September 10, prompting Riyadh to shut the 745-mile line the next day, but Saudi and Iraqi officials traced the attack to Iraqi territory and blamed Iran-backed militias operating there, not Yemen's Houthis, according to CNN and Al Jazeera. No group claimed responsibility, though an Iraqi militia coalition denied involvement while praising Houthi "battlefield victories" separately. Iraq removed its military operations commander in Maysan province, which borders Iran, over the failure to prevent the launch from its soil. Meanwhile, the Houthis themselves focused on territorial gains in this window, seizing the Red Sea port of Mokha and advancing toward Perim Island near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, rather than striking Saudi oil sites again directly. The distinction between Houthi and Iraqi-militia attribution proved decisive for this narrowly worded question. A majority of the community, 53%, expected another Houthi hit on Saudi energy targets before September 14; the attack that did occur in that window was attributed to a different actor, resolving the question no.

President Trump called on the Smithsonian Institution on September 11, 2026, to install an 11-foot statue of George Washington in the National Museum of American History's Flag Hall in time for Constitution Day, September 17. The request, reported by the Washington Post and PBS NewsHour, also asked the museum to erect a separate 30-foot "Washington Colossus" statue outside the building, replacing the modernist "Infinity" sculpture installed in 1967, and to mount a five-year exhibition on Washington's legacy running through February 2032, the 300th anniversary of his birth. The 11-foot statue named in the request had previously been featured at the Freedom 250 IndyCar race. As of September 17, no installation of the statue in Flag Hall had been reported. The Smithsonian is not part of the executive branch; it is governed by an independent Board of Regents, and changes to its exhibits and installations typically go through internal review rather than immediate compliance with a presidential request. The episode follows earlier White House pressure on the institution, including a July directive to post signage disputing the accuracy of some exhibits, part of a broader administration push to reshape how American history is presented there. A majority of the Predict Six community, 62%, correctly predicted the statue would not appear by the deadline.

SpaceX did not launch Starship's 14th test flight by September 16, 2026, pushing back what would be the vehicle's first attempt to reach orbit. Advanced Television reported on September 15 that SpaceX had delayed the launch from its mid-September target at the company's Starbase, Texas facility. The schedule slipped further in the following days: by September 15, TechCrunch reported SpaceX was now targeting September 28 for the flight, a roughly two-week delay from the dates the company had previously discussed with regulators. The mission will attempt Starship's first orbital flight after 13 prior test launches, and will also serve as the vehicle's first revenue-generating mission, carrying an initial batch of next-generation V3 Starlink satellites. SpaceX did not publicly detail a specific technical cause for the delay. The Federal Aviation Administration's Air Traffic Control System Command Center had previously listed mid-to-late September dates as possible launch windows before SpaceX itself pushed the target further out. A majority of the Predict Six community, 59%, correctly anticipated that the launch would slip past September 16. The repeated delays extend a pattern that has accompanied Starship's development as SpaceX works toward its first fully successful orbital flight.

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Detroit Lions 41-31 on September 17, 2026, winning the first regular-season game played at the team's new Highmark Stadium. The Thursday night matchup doubled as the venue's official debut, replacing the team's previous home field. Buffalo's offense, led by quarterback Josh Allen, outpaced Detroit's in a high-scoring contest, with the Lions' defense unable to slow the Bills down the stretch. The loss dropped Detroit to a Week 2 setback on the road, while Buffalo opened its new stadium with a win in front of a home crowd. A pregame ceremony featured both the American and Canadian national anthems, reflecting the stadium's location near the U.S.-Canada border and the Bills' significant Canadian fan base. The result was part of a broader slate of marquee Week 2 NFL matchups, several of which opened new or renovated venues this season. A majority of the Predict Six community, 56%, correctly forecast that the Lions would not win, matching the eventual outcome. The game drew significant national attention both for the stadium's debut and for the quality of the divisional-caliber matchup between two playoff contenders from the prior season.

On September 9, 2026, Israel ordered Britain to close its East Jerusalem consulate within 30 days, retaliating after the United Kingdom, France and Canada announced bans on imports from Israeli West Bank settlements. Israel's foreign ministry also barred 12 British nationals from entry and ended British training of Palestinian Authority security forces. Despite France joining the same settlement trade ban, Israel did not extend a closure order to France's Jerusalem consulate by September 17. French officials had previously warned that closing France's consulate would draw a "strong response," and Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar had at times floated the idea in connection with President Emmanuel Macron's push to recognize a Palestinian state, but no formal order against France materialized in this window. Israel's retaliation instead concentrated on Britain, which it treated as the lead actor in organizing the wider sanctions push involving a dozen countries. The community had priced this at 59% likely to resolve yes, expecting Israel to widen its response to France as officials had periodically signaled; the narrower, Britain-only action left that majority prediction wrong. The dispute remains part of a broader rift between Israel and Western governments over settlement policy, import bans and recognition of Palestinian statehood.