August 8, 2026

The Senate did not pass a FISA Section 702 reauthorization before its August recess. The warrantless surveillance authority had already lapsed on June 15, 2026, after the House rejected a short-term extension by a vote of 218-198 amid a dispute over Bill Pulte's role as acting director of national intelligence, with Democrats refusing to reauthorize the program under his oversight. As of late July, according to reporting from the Deseret News on July 29, 2026, there was no plan for the Senate to take up a Section 702 reauthorization before its own recess, meaning the lapse would extend at least until Congress returned in mid-September. The practical impact remained limited because major telecommunications providers continued sharing data with the government under a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court certification issued in March 2026 that runs through 2027, and lawmakers showed little urgency to act before leaving town. Predict Six's community unanimously expected a reauthorization before the Aug. 8 recess, but Congress instead left the authority lapsed, deferring the fight to the fall session.

Fewer than 10 Democrats voted for cloture on the defense authorization bill before the Senate's August recess — in fact, none did. On July 14, 2026, the Senate voted 50-46 against invoking cloture on a motion to proceed to the $1.15 trillion National Defense Authorization Act, well short of the 60 votes needed. All 50 votes in favor came from Republicans; the 46 no votes included 43 Democrats, independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Majority Leader John Thune, who switched his vote for procedural reasons to preserve a future motion to reconsider. Democrats said they would not support advancing the bill while Trump was escalating military action against Iran, and some also objected to provisions expanding U.S. military and intelligence cooperation with Israel and to the record size of the Pentagon budget. No subsequent cloture attempt with greater Democratic support occurred before the Senate adjourned for recess on Aug. 8. Predict Six's community unanimously expected at least 10 Democrats to back cloture, but with only two votes cast, that forecast was far off from the party-line result.

The Senate's stopgap funding bill cleared the chamber with well more than 70 votes, passing 90-6 in the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026, ahead of the Aug. 9 deadline in this question. The lopsided, bipartisan margin reflected broad support for avoiding a government shutdown before the November midterms; the measure extends current funding levels through Dec. 11 and gives appropriators additional time to negotiate full fiscal 2027 spending bills. The bill included add-ons negotiated by both parties, including protections against the administration redirecting federal grant money for political purposes and provisions supporting SNAP and WIC food programs. Passage came alongside the Senate's confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general in the same overnight session, as lawmakers cleared their major remaining business before leaving town. The stopgap still needed House approval, with that chamber not returning until early September. Predict Six's community was evenly split beforehand on whether the bill would clear 70 votes, with 50% predicting "yes" — the eventual 90-6 tally comfortably cleared that bar.

Luis Arraez recorded a multi-hit game for the Philadelphia Phillies well ahead of the Aug. 10 deadline, going 2-for-4 with two RBIs in his Phillies debut on Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. Arraez, acquired by Philadelphia at the trade deadline, drove in Trea Turner twice — once on a first-inning single and again on a third-inning double — as the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals 5-0 for their fourth straight win. The performance continued the contact-hitting reputation that made Arraez a multiple-time batting champion before the trade. He followed it up the next day, Aug. 5, with his first home run as a Phillie, hit off the right-field foul pole. The quick multi-hit debut fit the expectation that Arraez, known for a low strikeout rate and high batting average, would produce hits immediately in Philadelphia's lineup down the stretch. Predict Six's community was unanimous in predicting Arraez would notch a multi-hit game before Aug. 10, and the outcome confirmed that forecast within his first game for the team.

The Senate passed a stopgap government funding bill in the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026, clearing the chamber just before lawmakers left for their summer recess. The bipartisan measure, approved 90-6, extends federal funding at current levels through Dec. 11, pushing the next shutdown deadline past the November midterms. The deal included provisions Democrats sought, such as language aimed at preventing the administration from withholding federal grants from states for political reasons, and protections for SNAP and WIC food programs, alongside disaster relief and national security funding. The bill still required House approval before it could reach President Trump's desk; the House was not scheduled to return until early September. Passing the stopgap gave Senate Appropriations Committee leaders roughly 10 more weeks to negotiate full-year fiscal 2027 spending bills, which remained deadlocked over topline spending levels between defense and non-defense programs. Predict Six's community largely expected this outcome, with 65% predicting the stopgap would pass before the Aug. 8 break, matching the eventual result.

President Trump did not withdraw Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general before the Senate's August recess. Instead, the Senate confirmed Blanche in a 50-49 vote in the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026. The nomination had appeared at risk for weeks after Republicans including John Cornyn of Texas withheld support over concerns about Blanche's independence from the White House and his role overseeing a fund tied to Trump-connected payouts, prompting speculation Trump might need to find a different nominee. Rather than pulling the nomination, the administration worked to shore up support: Blanche gave written assurances to skeptical Republicans and agreed to end the disputed fund, which brought Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana on board as the deciding vote. Only Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted against confirmation. The episode marked one of the most contentious Cabinet fights of Trump's second term, but it ended in confirmation rather than withdrawal. Predict Six's community leaned toward expecting a withdrawal, with 67% predicting "yes" on only three votes cast — a small sample that proved wrong when Blanche was confirmed instead.

The Senate did not pass the $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill before its August recess. On July 14, 2026, senators voted 50-46 against invoking cloture on a motion to proceed to the National Defense Authorization Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed to open debate. The vote broke almost entirely along party lines: all 50 "yes" votes came from Republicans, while 43 Democrats, independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Majority Leader John Thune, who switched his vote to preserve the option of a future motion to reconsider, voted no. Democrats said Congress should not advance the record Pentagon budget while Trump was escalating military action against Iran, and some objected to provisions deepening U.S. military and intelligence cooperation with Israel. No subsequent attempt to advance the bill succeeded before the Senate adjourned for recess on Aug. 8, leaving the NDAA's fate to the fall session. Predict Six's community was closely divided on the bill's chances, with 48% predicting passage before recess, essentially a coin flip that ultimately came down "no."

The Senate left for its August recess on Aug. 8, 2026, without passing any of its 12 annual fiscal 2027 appropriations bills. Senate Appropriations Committee leaders, Chair Susan Collins of Maine and Vice Chair Patty Murray of Washington, remained deadlocked over topline spending levels, with Collins pushing for a larger defense-spending increase and Murray seeking more parity between defense and non-defense accounts. That stalemate kept the committee from advancing its own spending bills over the summer. Rather than a full-year bill, the Senate instead passed a continuing resolution, 90-6, that extends current funding levels through Dec. 11, giving appropriators roughly 10 additional weeks to negotiate full bills before the government would otherwise face a shutdown. The stopgap still needed House approval before it could reach President Trump's desk. Senate leaders framed the measure as a way to avoid a shutdown fight closer to the November midterms while punting the harder appropriations work until after the break. Predict Six's community largely anticipated this outcome, with only 33% predicting a first fiscal 2027 bill would pass before recess.

Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general was not withdrawn or pulled before a full Senate vote; instead, the Senate confirmed him 50-49 in the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026. A Republican revolt did threaten the nomination for weeks: senators including John Cornyn of Texas withheld support over concerns that Blanche, Trump's former personal lawyer, was too close to the White House and controlled a fund tied to Trump-connected payouts. That opposition never grew large enough to force the nomination off the floor. The standoff eased after Blanche gave written assurances to holdout Republicans and agreed to end the disputed fund, allowing Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana to become the deciding vote in Blanche's favor. In the end, only two Republicans, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, voted against him, and Senate leadership proceeded to a floor vote rather than withdrawing the nomination. Predict Six's community was closely split on whether a GOP revolt would derail Blanche before a vote, with 43% predicting "yes," and the nomination ultimately survived intact to a floor vote and confirmation.

The Senate left for its scheduled August recess on time, without pushing the break back past Aug. 8, 2026. Lawmakers cleared their two biggest remaining items — a stopgap government funding bill and the confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general — in an overnight session that stretched into the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8, allowing the chamber to adjourn as planned. The Senate is not scheduled to return to session until mid-September. In finishing on schedule, senators set aside other pending business, including a GOP budget resolution that Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged lacked the votes to pass, deferring it until after the break. The push to wrap up before recess reflected pressure from both parties to avoid a shutdown fight closer to the November midterms while still leaving Washington on schedule. Predict Six's community was evenly split on whether the recess would be delayed, with 50% predicting "yes," but the Senate's last-minute dealmaking on funding and nominations let it avoid an extension.

Senate Republicans confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general in a 50-49 vote early Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026, with 50 of the chamber's 53 Republicans backing him. Two Republicans, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, broke ranks to vote no, and Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was the decisive vote, announcing his support a day before the roll call after saying Blanche was the best option Trump would likely put forward. No Democrats voted for Blanche. The near-unanimous Republican tally followed weeks of internal GOP friction, as several senators, including John Cornyn of Texas, had withheld support over concerns about Blanche's independence from the White House and a fund tied to Trump-connected payouts; Blanche's written assurances to skeptics and his decision to end that fund helped bring holdouts on board. The result meant Republicans held together closely enough to confirm Trump's nominee despite two defections. Predict Six's community anticipated this outcome, with 72% forecasting that Republicans would confirm Blanche, matching the eventual result.

The Senate did not hold a floor vote to confirm Keith Sonderling as labor secretary before the chamber left for its August recess. The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved his nomination in a straight party-line vote, 12-11, on July 30, 2026, after an earlier committee session was postponed over member attendance issues. That sent the nomination to the full Senate, but floor time in the final days before recess was consumed by the contested confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general and a stopgap government funding bill, and no vote on Sonderling was scheduled before senators left town on Aug. 8. Sonderling has served as acting labor secretary since April, when Lori Chavez-DeRemer departed the post for a private-sector job; he previously worked at the Labor Department's Wage and Hour Division and as a commissioner of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. His confirmation vote remained pending when the Senate adjourned. Predict Six's community was unanimous that Sonderling would be confirmed by Aug. 8, but with only two votes cast, that forecast came from a thin sample and proved wrong once floor scheduling bumped his nomination behind other priorities.

The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general in a 50-49 vote in the early hours of Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026, clearing the nomination just ahead of the chamber's departure for its August recess. Republicans Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voted against Blanche, while Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana provided the deciding vote after saying a day earlier that Blanche was the best nominee Trump was likely to offer. Blanche, Trump's former personal defense lawyer, had served as acting attorney general since April and previously held the Justice Department's No. 2 post as deputy attorney general. His nomination faced a weeks-long standoff after several Republicans raised concerns about his independence from the White House; that impasse eased after Blanche agreed to end a controversial fund tied to payouts connected to Trump. The confirmation capped one of the most contentious Cabinet fights of Trump's second term. Predict Six's community leaned against confirmation happening by the Aug. 9 deadline, with only 43% predicting "yes" — the eventual outcome ran contrary to the majority view.