August 4, 2026

Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" held No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 for a 16th consecutive week on the chart dated August 8, 2026, per Billboard's tally published around August 3-4. The feat ties the song for the fourth-longest command in Hot 100 history and makes it one of only seven songs to ever lead the chart for 16 or more weeks; it first reached No. 1 in mid-February 2026. Billboard's weekly breakdown attributed the continued hold to steady streaming and radio growth rather than a sales surge: the song logged 25.5 million official U.S. streams (up 1% week-over-week) and 52.3 million radio airplay audience impressions (up 1%) for the tracking week of July 24-30, even as download sales fell 24% to 9,000. No new release challenged its position; instead country music broadly dominated the chart, with Langley's single topping a top five composed entirely of country songs for the first time in Hot 100 history, alongside tracks from Morgan Wallen, Taylor Swift, Stella Lefty, and a Langley/Wallen duet. The extended run keeps "Choosin' Texas" within range of the all-time record among songs by women, held by Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You." Predict Six's community had put the probability of a 16th week at 67% "Yes" across three votes ahead of the chart's release, correctly anticipating the outcome.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares moved up sharply on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, with reports placing the single-day gain in a range of roughly 26 percent to nearly 30 percent, well past the 10 percent threshold in question. Multiple outlets, including CNBC and Yahoo Finance, described the advance as one of Palantir's largest single-day moves in more than two years. The rally followed second-quarter 2026 results released after Monday's close: revenue rose 93 percent year-over-year to about $1.94 billion, above analyst estimates near $1.8 billion, while adjusted earnings per share came in around $0.41, versus consensus of roughly $0.34 to $0.35. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149 percent year-over-year to about $764 million, and U.S. government revenue rose 90 percent to about $809 million. Palantir also raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of roughly $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion, up from a prior ceiling near $7.66 billion, citing accelerating demand for its artificial-intelligence software platforms among commercial and government customers. The results extended a multi-quarter streak of earnings beats and came amid a year marked by elevated volatility in Palantir shares tied to its AI and government-contracting growth narrative. Ahead of the report, Predict Six's community forecast had unanimously assigned 0 percent probability, across three votes, to a move exceeding 10 percent in either direction; the stock's actual Tuesday reaction substantially exceeded that threshold.

The Senate Judiciary Committee voted 12-10 along party lines on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, to advance Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general to the full Senate. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, voted with the Republican majority in favor of Blanche rather than against him, so the standoff did not end his nomination in committee. Cornyn's support followed days of him withholding a "yes" vote, alongside Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., over the Justice Department's roughly $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund," created to compensate people who said they were targeted by "lawfare." Blanche broke the impasse by signing an order rescinding the fund in writing, satisfying the two senators' demand and unlocking their votes to advance the nomination. The confirmation fight had already been shadowed by scrutiny of the Justice Department's handling of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, an issue Blanche addressed at a July 15 confirmation hearing and which prompted Tillis to require a meeting between Blanche and Epstein accusers before backing him. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who does not sit on the committee, separately said she would oppose Blanche when the nomination reaches the Senate floor. Ahead of the committee vote, 61% of predictors on the platform had expected Cornyn to vote "no" and end Blanche's bid; the committee instead advanced the nomination on a straight party-line tally.

Morgan Wallen's "I'm the Problem" returned to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart dated Aug. 8, 2026, marking its 14th nonconsecutive week atop the chart as it moved 3-1. Gracie Abrams' "Daughter From Hell," which had debuted at No. 1 on the Aug. 1 chart with 124,000 equivalent album units, fell out of the top 10 entirely in its second week. Wallen's catalog title earned roughly 80,000 equivalent album units, up 7% week over week, according to Luminate data reported by Billboard. The gain was attributed to two sold-out concerts at the University of Michigan's Big House stadium on July 24-25, which included merchandise presales, and to the July 24 release of a new non-album single, "Been by Now," that boosted streaming of his catalog during the tracking week. Charli xcx's "Music, Fashion, Film" debuted at No. 3 the same week. The result extended a pattern in which "I'm the Problem," first released more than a year earlier, has repeatedly reclaimed the top spot from newer releases; Abrams' brief run at No. 1, her first ever, lasted only one week. Predict Six's community leaned toward this outcome in advance: only 33% of three votes predicted Abrams would hold No. 1, meaning most correctly anticipated the change at the top of the chart.

The Powerball jackpot climbed to an estimated $786 million, with a cash value of about $341.6 million, ahead of the Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 drawing, comfortably clearing the $750 million threshold cited in the market question. News outlets including ABC7 New York and Yahoo News reported the updated estimate on or around Aug. 3-4, 2026, days after the jackpot stood at $667 million and had climbed through $707 million (Aug. 1) and $748 million (Aug. 3). The jump followed the Monday, Aug. 3 drawing, in which no ticket matched all six numbers, though a Wisconsin player won $2 million on a Match 5 plus Power Play. The jackpot had been rolling over and growing since it was last won on May 2, 2026, when two tickets in Florida and Texas split a $20 million prize, producing a multi-month run of drawings without a jackpot winner. Coverage noted the $786 million figure made it the largest Powerball jackpot since the $1.817 billion prize won in Arkansas on Christmas Eve 2025. On Predict Six, the community had split evenly, with a 50% "Yes" prediction across just two votes, essentially a coin flip; the market ultimately resolved True, consistent with the jackpot estimate surpassing $750 million before the Aug. 5 drawing occurred.

The New York Yankees did not add a starting pitcher before Major League Baseball's August 3, 2026 trade deadline, instead directing their moves toward offense and bullpen turnover. On August 1, New York traded struggling reliever Camilo Doval, who carried a 4.63 ERA in 66 appearances, to the Pittsburgh Pirates for prospects Omar Alfonzo and Luis Cruz. At the deadline itself, the Yankees acquired first baseman/infielder Luis Garcia Jr. from the Washington Nationals, sending four right-handed pitching prospects -- Jack Cebert, Ben Grable, Yovanny Cruz and Jake Bird -- in return, and added outfielder Heliot Ramos from the San Francisco Giants for help against left-handed pitching. Ahead of the deadline, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that New York viewed its rotation as a position of strength rather than need, with Max Fried working back toward the rotation and Carlos Rodon not far behind, so the front office spent its prospect capital on a first baseman and an outfield bat rather than pursuing arms such as San Diego's Mason Miller. The quiet approach on pitching stood out against a deadline in which other contenders, including the Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers, made larger rotation additions. Community bettors on Predict Six had split evenly, with 50% predicting the Yankees would land a starting pitcher, but the market resolved No once the deadline passed without such a deal.

The Senate Judiciary Committee voted 12-10 along party lines on Aug. 4, 2026, to advance Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. attorney general, sending it to the full Senate. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., joined the Republican majority in voting yes, ending weeks of holding out alongside Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. Tillis and Cornyn had threatened to delay or block the nomination unless Blanche formally killed a proposed $1.8 billion Justice Department "anti-weaponization fund" -- tied to a settlement resolving President Trump's dispute with the IRS -- that critics said could compensate Trump allies and Jan. 6 defendants. Blanche issued a written order rescinding the fund over the weekend before the vote, after which Cornyn and Tillis said they would support advancing his nomination. Speaking shortly before the vote, Tillis said he would back Blanche while pressing him to "bend the curve" on what Tillis called Justice Department "weaponization" by both parties, citing the Obama and Biden administrations. The vote capped a monthslong confirmation fight and set up a final Senate floor vote before the August recess. On Predict Six, the market's 50% "Yes" community prediction reflected genuine uncertainty over whether Tillis -- one of two publicly undecided GOP senators -- would follow through; the committee's party-line outcome resolved the question True.

Caterpillar Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 4, posting adjusted earnings per share of $8.17, well above the Wall Street consensus estimate of roughly $6.19 to $6.20, according to CNBC and Bloomberg. Revenue of $20.5 billion, up 24% from $16.6 billion a year earlier, also topped the roughly $19.24 billion analyst forecast and marked the first time the company had exceeded $20 billion in quarterly sales. The beat was driven primarily by surging demand tied to artificial intelligence data center construction, which lifted the Power and Energy segment 17% to $8.2 billion, with power-generation sales climbing 29%. The Construction Industries segment also grew 35% to $8.3 billion as North American construction demand jumped 50%. Order backlog reached a record $72 billion, and Caterpillar raised its full-year 2026 sales and revenue growth outlook to a mid- to high-teens percentage range from its prior low- to mid-teens forecast. Shares surged roughly 9 to 12% in premarket and morning trading following the report. The result fits a broader 2026 pattern of industrial and equipment makers benefiting from AI-related infrastructure spending. Predict Six's pre-resolution community prediction, based on two votes, showed 100% expecting a "Yes" outcome, consistent with the market's eventual True resolution.

McDonald's Corp. reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 4, 2026, showing U.S. comparable sales rose 0.8% from the same quarter a year earlier, according to the company's earnings release and reporting by CNBC and The Washington Post. That was a slowdown from the 2.5% U.S. comparable-sales growth McDonald's posted in the second quarter of 2025. Global comparable sales rose 1.3% for the quarter, with gains of 1.5% in international operated markets and 1.9% in international developmental licensed markets. The modest U.S. increase was driven by a higher average check, including a more favorable product mix, which was partly offset by a decline in comparable guest counts as fewer customers visited U.S. restaurants during the quarter. McDonald's has continued to lean on value-menu offerings and promotional deals to retain price-sensitive customers amid a period of cautious consumer spending across the quick-service restaurant industry. The company also reported second-quarter net income of $2.36 billion, or $3.32 per share, up from $2.25 billion, or $3.14 per share, a year earlier, on net revenue that rose 4% to $7.1 billion, and it named Skye Anderson president of McDonald's USA, succeeding Joe Erlinger. On Predict Six, the community's forecast of 100% "Yes" across two votes matched the eventual True resolution, since the 0.8% figure, while decelerating, remained positive.

The Boston Red Sox did not acquire a starting pitcher before Major League Baseball's trade deadline, 6 p.m. ET on Monday, August 3, 2026. Instead, Boston's front office, led by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, completed three deadline-day trades addressing other needs: acquiring All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman and catcher Jake Rogers from the Baltimore Orioles for catcher Carlos Narvaez and a package of prospects, sending infield prospect Marcelo Mayer to the San Francisco Giants for reliever Erik Miller and an outfield prospect, and obtaining outfielder Eli White from the Atlanta Braves for right-hander Tyler Uberstine. No pitcher changed hands in a way that added rotation depth for Boston. Speaking to reporters after the deadline, Breslow said the club was "mindful of the workload" its starters had taken on but felt comfortable with existing depth, pointing to right-hander Brayan Bello's effective transition to bullpen work as part of that calculus. The rotation Boston carried into August was therefore the same one it had going in, even as the team was widely reported to be pursuing starting pitching earlier in deadline season. On Predict Six, 73% of 30 pre-resolution votes had predicted the Red Sox would land a starter; the market instead resolved "No" once the deadline passed without a rotation addition.

The Detroit Tigers completed at least two trades ahead of Major League Baseball's Aug. 3, 2026, deadline, satisfying the market's threshold. In the marquee deal, the Tigers sent two-time American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers for outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handers River Ryan and Brady Smith. Separately, right-hander Casey Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick who had posted a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts, was traded to the San Diego Padres for left-handed pitching prospect Kash Mayfield, San Diego's No. 2 prospect, and 27-year-old left-hander Jackson Wolf. Both moves reflected Detroit's decision to sell rather than buy: Skubal was months from free agency and unlikely to be re-signed, while Mize's value made him attractive to a Padres club reshaping its rotation. Analysts characterized the two trades as the Tigers turning a competitive but non-contending season into a talent-restocking effort, netting the club a B+ grade from evaluators for the return acquired in both deals. The community prediction on Predict Six had been unanimous, with both recorded votes (100%) forecasting "Yes" before resolution, an outcome consistent with the confirmed result of True.

AMD reported second-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on Tuesday, August 4, posting non-GAAP earnings of $1.66 per share, above the $1.61 Wall Street consensus estimate. Revenue reached a record $11.5 billion, up 50% year over year and ahead of analyst forecasts of roughly $11.3 billion. The beat was driven primarily by AMD's data center segment, where revenue more than doubled to $6.7 billion, up about 107% from a year earlier, fueled by accelerating demand for EPYC server processors and Instinct AI accelerators; the segment accounted for 58% of total company revenue. CEO Lisa Su cited strengthening EPYC demand, scaling Instinct deployments and the early ramp of AMD's Helios AI systems as drivers of the results, and the company guided third-quarter revenue to about $12.7 billion to $13.3 billion, above the roughly $12.5 billion analysts expected. Despite the top- and bottom-line beat, AMD shares fell more than 8% in after-hours trading, as investors focused on capital-expenditure spending that came in well above consensus and on already-elevated expectations heading into the print, amid AMD's ongoing positioning against Nvidia in AI accelerators. Predict Six's community had unanimously forecast "Yes" (100% across three votes) ahead of the report, a prediction that matched the resolved outcome.

Ariana Grande performed at least three songs from her new album "Petal" -- the title track, "kiss me" and "freak" -- during the first of three sold-out Eternal Sunshine Tour dates at Chicago's United Center on August 3, 2026, according to a Chicago Sun-Times review of the show and setlist data collected by setlist.fm. That total exceeded the two-song ceiling she had kept to on most tour stops earlier in the run. Grande had been rolling out "Petal" material gradually since the album's July 31, 2026 release on her BabyDoll Music/Republic Records imprint, having debuted the pre-release single "hate that i made you love me" at the tour's opening show and adding the title track and other cuts at subsequent stops, including shows in Montreal; the Chicago performance continued that expansion. The Chicago stand was also notable because Grande paused the show to address a publicist's announcement, made the day before, that she intends to step back from public visibility after finishing the tour's United Kingdom dates. Community forecasters on Predict Six had unanimously predicted (100% across two votes) that she would exceed two "Petal" songs, a call that proved accurate.

San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller was not traded before Major League Baseball's 2026 trade deadline, which closed August 3 at 6 p.m. ET. The Padres kept Miller in their bullpen throughout deadline week, and the team subsequently recognized him as National League Reliever of the Month for July, a stretch in which he made 11 appearances, posted a 0.82 ERA and recorded seven saves. Reporting from outlets including MLB.com and Yahoo Sports indicated the Padres set an "immense" asking price for Miller and never seriously engaged trade offers, with San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller reportedly requiring an interested team to put its entire prospect system in play. San Diego Union-Tribune columnist Kevin Acee and New York Post insider Jon Heyman both reported in the days before the deadline that a trade had become increasingly unlikely as the Padres improved their record in July and Miller's continued dominance made him more valuable to keep than to sell. Miller remains under club control through the 2029 season, reducing urgency to move him for immediate value. The market's pre-resolution community prediction of 42 percent "Yes" (36 votes) did not match the eventual outcome, which resolved "No" -- the deadline passed with Miller still on San Diego's roster.