July 23, 2026

3 resolutions on this day.

๐ŸŒ World Resolved YES

Will subpoenas against NYT's journalists over security issues with QatarForceOne be squashed in July?

Community missed this one โ€” 65% predicted NO.

The Justice Department subpoenaed four New York Times journalists (Eric Lipton, Julian E. Barnes, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt) on July 11, seeking testimony and phone records related to their reporting on security concerns surrounding the Qatar-donated Air Force One replacement aircraft. The Times filed a motion in Manhattan federal court to quash the subpoenas, arguing they violated Justice Department media-subpoena guidelines and the First Amendment.

On July 23, the department withdrew the subpoenas after U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian criticized the government's approach at a hearing, stating he would have granted the motion to quash regardless of the withdrawal and that subpoenas targeting journalists are meant to be a last resort under rules protecting press freedom. A Justice Department attorney acknowledged in court that subpoenas seeking information on the reporters' family members had been issued in error.

The withdrawal resolved the immediate legal dispute before the scheduled grand jury testimony date. The community had priced in only a 35% chance the subpoenas would be quashed by the end of July; the outcome resolved yes.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Markets Resolved NO

Will Tesla shares rise the day after they report earnings on Wed, 7/22?

Community missed this one โ€” 65% predicted YES.

Tesla reported second-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 22, and shares fell rather than rose the next trading day. On Thursday, July 23, the stock tumbled about 15%, its steepest one-day decline since March 2025, erasing more than $140 billion in market value and extending its year-to-date decline to roughly 29%.

The drop came despite record quarterly revenue of about $28.2 billion, up 26% year-over-year, driven by a Q2-record 480,126 vehicle deliveries. Profitability was the problem: operating income fell 57% to about $398 million, compressing the operating margin to 1.4%, and non-GAAP earnings per share came in well below analyst estimates. Tesla burned through more than $1 billion in cash as it increased spending on Robotaxi, Optimus, and semiconductor manufacturing, raising investor concern about near-term returns on that spending. Several Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Mizuho Securities, cut their price targets on Tesla following the report.

The community had priced in a 65% chance that shares would rise the day after earnings. The outcome went the other way, extending a pattern of volatile post-earnings reactions for Tesla this year.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Markets Resolved YES

Will Intel delight investors with a big beat on quarterly earnings when they report on 7/23?

75% of users predicted YES โ€” community got this one right.

Intel reported second-quarter 2026 results after the market close on July 23, and the report beat Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings. Revenue came in at $16.1 billion, up roughly 25% year-over-year and well above the approximately $14.4 billion analysts had forecast, marking Intel's fastest revenue growth in nearly 15 years. Earnings per share also topped estimates by a wide margin. The outperformance was driven primarily by Data Center and AI product demand, with that segment's revenue reaching roughly $6.3 billion versus analyst estimates near $5.5 billion.

Intel also issued third-quarter revenue guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, above the $15.06 billion consensus, signaling management's expectation that AI-driven demand will continue. Shares jumped in after-hours trading, at one point rising as much as 13% above the regular-session close.

The report follows a volatile stretch for Intel, whose stock had already climbed sharply earlier in 2026 on optimism about its foundry business and AI positioning, making this earnings print a test of whether that rally was justified. The community had priced in a 75% chance of a big beat, and the outcome confirmed that expectation.