Chris Pappas polled 61% against Karishma Manzur in August. Will he top 70% in New Hampshire's Democratic Senate primary Sept 8?

Rep. Chris Pappas won New Hampshire's Democratic Senate primary on September 8, 2026, defeating progressive challenger Karishma Manzur by roughly 62.5% to 35.4%, according to Associated Press results reported by New Hampshire Public Radio and the Concord Monitor. The AP called the race for Pappas about an hour after polls closed, and his lead held in that range through the count. Pappas fell short of the 70% threshold in this question despite having polled at 61% against Manzur in August. Manzur, a scientist and activist from Exeter running to Pappas's left on issues including U.S. policy toward Israel, outperformed her polling and drew a larger-than-expected protest vote, even as Pappas secured backing from national Democrats. Pappas now advances to face Republican John Sununu on November 3 for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, in a race rated among the most competitive Senate contests nationally. The prediction-market community assigned only a 15 percent chance to Pappas topping 70 percent, correctly anticipating that Manzur's challenge would hold his margin below that mark.