Alaska votes Aug 18 under its top-four system. Will Dan Sullivan take more than half the vote in the Senate primary?
100% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 3 predictions cast.
Alaska's Aug. 18, 2026 U.S. Senate primary produced no majority winner: Democrat Mary Peltola topped the four-candidate field with roughly 48% of the vote, while Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan finished second with about 43%. Under Alaska's top-four system, both advance — along with two other candidates — to a ranked-choice general election on Nov. 3, 2026.
Sullivan fell short of a majority in part because the Republican vote was fractured by a same-named rival, Dan J. Sullivan Jr., a Republican political newcomer whose presence on the ballot caused voter confusion and split conservative support. Peltola, a former U.S. House member popular with rural and Alaska Native voters, also drew crossover appeal that pushed her past the incumbent in the all-party field.
The result leaves the toss-up Senate race — one of the cycle's most closely watched — to be decided in November under ranked-choice voting, with fourth place too close to call between a Democrat and a Republican. The prediction-market community assigned 0% probability to "Yes," correctly forecasting that Sullivan would not clear 50% of the primary vote.